Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Where are we now in the cycle of fear ?

In between dismissal and denial.

Friday, January 1, 2016

Turtleinvestor's Portfolio as at 31 Dec 2015

Happy New Year 2016!

Wow! Soon this Turtleinvestor's portfolio will be coming to 8 years. Was glad that not a single year that this portfolio had gone into a negative year. Out of 7+ years, there is only 1 year that it managed to achieve CAGR of 10%. That year was 2010, the first year, after the market hit a bottom in 2009 financial crisis. I have been either underweight equities or out of stock market since year 2011.

To hit 10% CAGR in 2014, Book Value needs to be around RM 134 k or about 34% from book value as at 31 December 2015. It is not a difficult and certainly possible to catch up during next bear market. How? Assuming KLCI hits about 1,000 points by 2018 or 2 years from 2016 and going back to 1,700 points in 2 years or 2020, CAGR will be close to 9.44%. How?

2015 RM 100 k + 4 years x 888 x 12 = RM 142 k. By the time it goes back to 1,700 or 70% up, RM 142 k x 1.7 = RM 241 k. By using a compounding calculator, period = 143. CAGR will be 9.44%.

My point? You may continue to see me to have about 3.5% for the next 2-3 years and a good possibility of huge spike in 1 year. Based on my years of long enough in the stock market, this is quite a normal trend that a value investor will have boring returns for many years until I hit a home run.

Now you know that why I have not quit yet and still in the game. That is the whole point: never lose money so that I can continue stay in the game.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Monday, November 9, 2015

Silent ‘epidemic’ of ageing

Just to share ......
23 years from today, number of Malaysia aged 65 or older will double to 14%....
23 years are very short indeed. Considering many do not have many dependents. What is worst even they have dependent, they are unable to support their parents. The financial markets have not been very kind either. The recent volatile financial markets have been very tough for most of the fund managers.
Years of low interest rates are actually making things worse. 

Malaysia, like many of its neighbours in Asia, is in danger of getting old before we know it.
CHALLENGES of the ageing population are no longer issues faced by developed countries. Developing countries are fast catching up and Malaysia is not spared.
 In fact, the speed of growth in the number of the aged in developing nations is so alarming that innovative thinking at all levels is needed to address it if we are to avert a crisis, says Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) Institute of Gerontology director Prof Dr Tengku Aizan Tengku Abdul Hamid.
It is a “silent epidemic”, she says.
 “While France took more than 100 years to double her population aged 65 and over from 7% to 14% (from 1865 to 1980), the older population in Malaysia aged 65 or over will take only 23 years to double from 7% in 2020 to 14% in 2043.
 “So, compared with the more developed countries, Malaysia has a rather short time to prepare for the transition into an aged nation,” says Tengku Aizan. 
It is therefore urgent to prepare the nation for this eventuality as it takes more than a decade for social institutions to change, she stresses.
One main problem is that ageing issues in the country are handled by separate agencies, making them fragmented and hampering them from providing the best solutions. 
“There should a central planning body that oversees all aspects of population from the life course perspectives, with inputs from all stakeholders and made up of multidisciplinary team members who could analyse, organise and plan the kind of policies and programmes needed to best address the issues,” she says. 
A nation is considered aged when the older population makes up 7% of its total population, Tengku Aizan highlights, quoting a US National Institute on Aging report, “An Aging World: 2008”. 
As the study also points out, Sweden took 85 years to double her population aged 65 and over (1890 to 1975), Australia, 74 years (1938 to 2012), the United States, 68 years (1944 to 2012), Britain, 45 years (1930 to 1975) and Japan, 26 years (1970 to 1996) to double her population aged 65 years and over from 7% to 14%. 
In contrast, developing countries such as China would only take 22 years to double her population aged 65 years (2001 to 2023), Singapore, 20 years (2007 to 2027), Korea, 18 years (1999 to 2017) and Vietnam, 16 years (2020 to 2036), she highlights, based on the findings of K. Kinsella & Y. J. Gist in their book Older Workers, Retirement and Pensions in 1995 as well as Tengku Aizan’s own calculations from the International Data Base (US Census Bureau, 2013). 
Read the rest here:

Monday, November 2, 2015

< = > Less equals to more

21 Benefits of Owning Less

Minimalist living is countercultural. It is contrary to every advertisement we have ever seen because we live in a society that prides itself on the accumulation of possessions.
But there is more joy to be found owning less than can be found pursuing more. Consider just some of the benefits of living with fewer possessions.
1. Spend Less  | Choosing to accumulate only the essential often results in financial freedom.
2. Less Stress | A minimalist home is significantly less stressful.
3. Easier to Clean | The fewer things in our home, the easier they are to clean.
4. More Freedom | The sense of freedom that comes from minimalism is truly refreshing.
5. Good for the Environment | The less we consume, the less damage we do to the environment.
6. Be More Productive | Our possessions consume our time more than we realize.
7. Example for my Kids | These are valuable life lessons they will never learn in the media.
8. Support Other Causes | Money is only as valuable as what we choose to spend it on.
9. Own Higher Quality Things | More is not better… better is better.
10. Less Work for Someone Else | Create a less stressful life today and lessen the burden on someone else too.
11. Be Happier | Owning fewer possessions makes you happier.
12. Do Work You Love | Own less stuff. Choose work you love.
13. Freedom From the Comparison Game | Our culture begs us to own more.
14. Time for Things that Matter Most | The more stuff you own, the more your stuff owns you.
15. Visually Appealing | Make your home more appealing.
16. Not Tied to the Past | Release the past to create a better tomorrow.
17. Less Places for Your Heart | Invest your heart into meaningful things.
18. More Opportunity for Rest | Take a deep breath.
19. Find Things Easier | Own less clutter. Find stuff quicker.
20. Live in a Smaller Space | For most families, a house is the costliest investment they’ll ever make.
21. Display What You Value Most | Communicate what is most important.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Bear markets already started

The most obvious one.....

Hang Seng Index already plunged more than 24%

Singapore market also plunged by 20%

Can't imagine what will happen when S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial enter bear market.

Will these markets get even more depressed with another 20% down? Very likely.

What about KLCI which just entered in a correction territory despite of so much bad news such as 1MDB scandal created so much uncertainty and rapid Ringgit depreciation?

My view is worse is yet to come. I won't go posting a bear case everyday like what I did in 2007/2008 cycle. I will let the gravity rules - the markets will fall on its weight.

Just forget about the noise of 1MDB or Federal Reserves that keep everyone guessing on the timing of a rate hike.